RE/MAX Edmonton Real Estate News

Edmonton News agencies including the Edmonton Sun, Global News, and the Edmonton Journal are reporting on recent community resistance towards the City of Edmonton’s infill project.

The ambitious project had been relatively well received by Edmonton residents, contractors, and particularly newcomers desperate to find residence amongst the city’s ever increasing population spike.

The project encourages the construction of new residences on existing properties, such as duplexes, the addition of rental units over garages, and basement suites. This will allow a population expansion in Edmonton, which does not see signs of slowing down, without the often associated sprawl of suburban communities. To encourage development, the city has been particularly lax on approval policies related to the former bureaucratic red tape of the projects.

Rumblings are beginning to be heard from homeowners, who are now organizing to voice their concerns.  Of particular note is the message board website EdmontonLotSubdivision.com which has been active since early last fall but is picking up momentum.  Of the largest concern to homeowners is the lack of an appeal process. Citizens are looking towards their city councillors and MLA’s in hope of some response. Says Westbrook community member Darren Jackinsky,

“Fundamentally, it’s that it’s been forced on people and that there’s no structure in place to appeal an approval of a subdivision.” He goes on to explain the difficulty in voicing homeowner dissatisfaction, “we’ve so far been told essentially by the MLAs that it’s a city issue — talk to your councilors — and the city is saying talk to your MLA, it’s a provincial government issue.”

According to Edmonton Journal reports concerns arose because “the appeal process exists for developments on already split properties and for subdivisions that are denied, but not for the subdivisions themselves.”

The latest vocal outcry is coming from the residents of Rio Terrace. A 500 signature petition and 100 letters were submitted in opposition of a split-lot skinny house proposal, believing the development would not to suit the aesthetic design of the neighborhood.

City Councilor Michael Oshry, a proponent of the project, is dedicated to working with residents to clear up misconceptions while maintaining momentum. He believes misinformation has led to recent outcries,

“I’m happy to listen to them, but I do think a lot of the supposed support for no infill is based on information that either people don’t know, or people have misunderstood, or even been misled on occasion…I think these are people that are just concerned about what they think is going to be a dramatic change to their neighbourhood. And I think what they don’t appreciate is what actually is going to be built there.”

Oshry has explained that in the instance of Rio Terrace, lots are 22 meters wide, meaning a split lot is still not so small to reasonably necessitate a house. Additionally, replacing a single, aging, bungalow with two higher value homes positively impacts the value of neighboring properties. The City sees the project as a win-win for communities.

Oshry concludes, “At the end of the day, in my view, I don’t think it’s going to make one iota of difference. You’re going to end up with two homes with two nice families living in a nice neighbourhood.”

Will YEG weather hold? Or should we prepare for second winter?

February in the YEG Real Estate Market carried a familiar theme, inventory.

More and more homeowners are continuing to see the value in listing their residences with MLS, as market prices are tending to remain steady. Market forecasters indicate that the predictable seasonal lull will be drawing to a close in the foreseeable future, as snow continues to melt and temperatures rise in the city.

“Buyers are still taking their time to consider all of their options before purchasing a new home,” Says REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Chair Steve Sedgwick. “But with warmer weather just around the corner, clients are reaching out to their REALTOR® for support as the busy spring buying season approaches.”

The early months of 2016 have seen fluctuations to over 6,000 residential listings on the market, with February closing at 6,682 MLS properties for sale. This total indicates just a 16.2% increase from January, however the year over year numbers show a more impactful 36.5% rise from February of 2015.

Average residential sale prices saw a mild increase in all categories across the board. The category of Duplex/Rowhouses continued to be the market superstars, showing an 8.41% rise to $354,386, up 8.41% from January previous, and a 1.24% from the same time last year. The real surprise in February came from renewed market strength of condominiums, which had lately been showing drops or only negligible rises, yet which had gains of over 8% last month (8.83%) for an average sale price of $247,090. This price tag indicates a minimal year over year drop of 1.32%. Single family homes remained nearly steady from January, a 0.24% increase brought their average to $419,940, which showed a 2.79% drop from February of 2015. The month ended with a total residential sale price average of $363,366, a healthy 6.93% rise month over month and virtually no change in year over year comparisons.

February showed a large climb in reported sales, with 837 by month-end compared to January’s 618. This indicates a 36.5% jump month over month. February of 2015 saw 931 residences sold, which shows a current 10.1% decrease. Explains Sedgwick

“Sales numbers are increasing consistent with seasonal trends. Relative to 2015, potential buyers have more inventory to choose from. Despite this inventory growth, prices have moderated only slightly compared to last year, so home owners and sellers can maintain some confidence that housing prices are remaining stable.”

These remarks are also reflected in days on market averages for the month. The average residence was on the market for 57 days, which shows a year over year increase of 48 days. Despite climbing inventory however, this is a remarkable drop from January’s 71 average days on market. Of particular note, Condominiums averaged 57 days, an even more significant decrease month over month from a previous 85 days.

How much will oil field politics impact Edmonton’s Real Estate economy?

A February sales report published by the EREB titled “Home buyers continue to cautiously watch market” has left some feeling less than optimistic. There is no denying the ongoing concerns of Albertan’s over the economic future of the province, however the real question is, to what extent will recent political and oil industry events impact the province’s real estate industry? It is very plausible that the market, which has proven itself as more than a little resilient, is simply experiencing a predictable lull.

The recent economic downturn appears to be creating undue concern amongst market consumers and professionals; a concern that is starting to be reflected in market activity, as explained by REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Chair Steve Sedgwick,

“Sales volumes are down, relative to the same time last year…It is likely that home buyers are responding to current economic uncertainties. Although prices have dropped slightly, they remain stable. Growth in inventory may create more opportunities for potential buyers, and given the low interest rates, we remain optimistic about market growth as we head into the spring buying season”.

The report goes onto to show strong inventory numbers, with 5,751 MLS properties available going into February. This figure is almost a 40% increase from the same time last year, creating a great deal of consumer options for discerning buyers. This massive inventory increase hasn’t yet caused market saturation concerns, as sales from the same time last year are down a mere 7.21%. However in contrast to the month previous, December of 2015, sales dropped just over 14%.

Continuing in favour of a buyer’s market, a small decline occurred in residential sale prices. The average single family home price hovered at $418, 928 down 1.2% from the month previous, while condos show a larger 8.8% decline in the same time frame, for an average of $227, 052. The largest drop showed in the category of duplex/rowhouses which averaged out at $326, 885, a double digit decrease of just over 12%. All in all the residential category saw a 7.2% decreases in month over month sales, and a 6.3% decrease year over year for an average price of $339, 714.

The larger inventory is likely contributing to a rise in average days on market, which has increased to 71 days, up from December’s 62. Comparatively, this time last year, the average was about 58 days to market. The EREB report attributes this average rise mainly due to condominium sales “which sat at 85 for January, up from 62 from last month and 61 YoY” (EREB).

Concludes Sedgwick,

“The increase in the average days on market just appears to reflect that buyers are taking time to consider their options before purchasing a new home,”. He continues, “Clients are looking to their REALTOR® for advice and guidance as they navigate their own individual situations.”

Consider this a public service announcement: Valentine’s Day is just 10 days away and events are selling out fast. Fortunately, Edmonton is jam packed with events and activities for families, friends, and couples to celebrate the day. Here’s a list of the city’s best offerings:

Valentine’s Day Disco Skate

The City of Edmonton is hosting this free public event from 5-9 pm on Valentine’s Day. Public skating will be available at the outdoor City Hall Plaza Rink accompanied by a 70’s and 80’s music mix! Attendees can enjoy a warm hot chocolate while they roast bannock over an open fire. Skate and helmet rentals are also available free of charge.

Meet Me at Lover’s Lane

Hosted by the Silver Skate Festival, this romantic day for the outdoors type is filled with all the wonders of Hawrylak Park. Enjoy a hot chocolate as you explore the park by lantern light, take a sleigh ride under the stars, or visit the magical Ice Castles at the park. You can even purchase boxes of chocolates right on site to surprise your sweetie with. Prices vary by package. Activities run from 4-9 pm.

Valentine’s Weekend at the Park

Fort Edmonton park is hosting a full weekend of jam packed weekend for family fun, or couples romance. Packages are selling out fast but there are still tickets to enjoy the Lover’s Getway and spend a night at the beautiful park hotel, enjoy a four course dinner and breakfast for two. Perhaps Cupid’s Dinner & Show is more your speed, which provides a delectable dinner followed by the radio-style musical ‘Song of the Martingale’.

Art Gallery of Alberta

There aren’t many more romantic ways to spend an afternoon then strolling through a quiet gallery, hand in hand, admiring the masterpieces of AGA’ spectacular collection. After your quiet tour, there are beautiful local artisan items available in the gift store, as well as postcards, books and other mementos to commemorate your visit. Then head over to Zinc, located in the same building, for a ‘relaxed, fine dining experience’. Sunday hours are 11am-5pm and admission prices range from $8.50 – $12.50 (Children 6 and under are free).

Fantasyland Hotel

Why not travel to farthest exotic reaches of time without ever leaving the city. The Fantasyland hotel offers spectacularly detailed theme rooms for a romantic night away (but not too far away). Theme rooms include Modern Polynesia, Hollywood Nights, Roman, Western, Arabian, Imperial, African, and Igloo, among others. The hotel offers multiple fine dining experiences, as well as all the amenities West Edmonton Mall has to offer. They also offer a “romantic rendezvous” package for any of the rooms which includes chocolates, sparkling wine, and of course, rose petals.

Sweetheart Snowshoe

The city of Edmonton has another great offer for the outdoorsy type! A guided snowshoe tour of the scenic sprawling river valley. Snowshoes and a guide are provided, as well as hot choclate and bannock making to warm up after your walk. Tickets are $30 per person and are limited, however if you’d like to avoid Valentine’s day crowds, they have other dates available.

Paint Nite

Paint Nite, the new social actitivy that has taken Canada by storm regularly selling out events nationwide, is hosting a handful of city wide painting events on Valentine’s Day. Paint themes include “An Undefended Heart”, “A Valentine Stroll” and “Love in Paris”. This is the perfect event for lovers of art, novices, and those who have never picked up a brush. Enjoy the activity in the comfort of your local pub, where you can enjoy food, drinks and all the regular amenities, while spending a wonderful date night out. Visit the Paint Nite website for locations and pricing.

Rowhouse/Duplex style homes continue to be the superstars of the YEG home market.

In the face of a potential economic crunch for Albertans, do EREB mid-winter sales statistics offer any light at the end of the tunnel? Has the real estate sector yet seen any fallout from this relatively recent downslide? While some areas have shown relative decline, such as condominiums, we continue to see promise in areas of duplex and rowhousing, which remain up in sales, while total number of property sales also remains strong.

REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Chair Geneva Tetreault summarizes her big takeaway on the year overall,

“2015 was a steady year for real estate in Edmonton. Edmonton and the surrounding areas experienced a decline in sales due to economic uncertainty, but we saw a slight increase in price that demonstrated that the market remained relatively stable. This began to cool in the fall months as inventory remained higher than normal.”

These expected patterns indicate the real estate market is following the largely predictable up and down cycle we see recurring year after year, and therefore provides an optimistic outlook about the market’s relative economic resilience.

As reported by the EREB, the cooling of December prices was not only “seasonally normal” but proved advantageous to potential home buyers. Total residential sale prices dropped a slight 0.9% from November of 2015, with the average price of a single family detached home decreasing to $424, 629 (compared to November’s $432, 862). Condominium prices decreased 1.8% to $248, 956 yet duplex/rowhouses reported a whopping 10% increase in price up to $374, 217. These prices are in fact up, in year over year comparisons. The year ended with average single family home prices up 1% from the year previous, and all residential properties up an average of 1.5% total. This is an area where even condominiums showed a slight increase (about 0.5% from the year previous). The 2015 condominum average sale price was up tp $252, 954, and single family homes rose to $437, 569, while all residential properties averaged out at $372, 511.

The sales to listings ratio for the year was 54% (evening out slightly from 2014 when it was 16% higher) while average days on market were up only 4 days from the year previous, to 51 days. Inventory continued to dominate throughout 2015, with year end inventory at a staggering 5,088 properties.  In comparison, at the end of 2014, year end inventory was at 3059 available MLS properties.

The new year continues to carry forward 2015’s trends of high inventory, and in ever increasing buyers market. Tetrault comments on these trends,

“We continued to see home buyers take advantage of low mortgage rates. An influx of listings at the beginning of the year, meant that buyers had a larger selection of homes and were able to take more time selecting properties than in previous years. We continue to see a tight market in the popular $400,000 price range for single family homes.”

Overall, 2015 MLS sales were down about 9% from the year previous, however it should be emphasized that this drop still shows a 1% increase over 2013 numbers. Single family homes represented this average, with a 9% decrease, while condos showed a decline in sales of around 13%. The ever popular rowhouse/duplex category continued to dominate the market with a rise in sales of 6%. In total Edmonton realtors reported 17,298 residential sales via MLS last year.

CLICK HERE to connect with a real estate professional in your community.

2015 went as quickly as it came, and we are left with another year of choices to reflect upon. Wether  you felt it was a highly successful year, personally or professionally, or if 2015 left something to be desired, the key to reflection is personal growth. The following steps are aimed at personal development which in turn will make your a more accessible and approachable professional figure. Implementing these small life changes will show dedication to continual self improvement.

Be A Swift Responder. Make a point of returning correspondences immediately. Have your calls, emails, and social media messages forwarded to your smart phone, so you can receive communication from anywhere, and more importantly, respond immediately. Turn that potential customer into a lifelong client by being the first agent to reply.

Commit to Lifelong Learning. Sign up for courses offered by Re/Max University, AREA Professional Development to always be challenging yourself and grow. It doesn’t have to be innately real estate related. Why not take a Metro Continuing Education photography class, and take better photos for MLS, or choose a beginner language course and broaden your client base.

Maintain Your Network. Have a lawyer, mortgage broker, painting service, and house cleaner on hand and build good relationships. Send wine, gifts, and thank you notes to show appreciation for a job well done. Send Christmas cards to past clients; even if you know they’re not interested you never know who they will pass your name to. Is your cousin in the furnace repair business? Keep a card on hand to refer customers to. Making an effort in all facets of your life will help improve social skills, build reciprocity, and create a dedicated business persona.

 Be an open book. Don’t leave your clients in the dark or assume they understand the real estate process. Many clients may be first time buyers and are probably more terrified and overwhelmed than they let on. Don’t be afraid to over-explain, people will stop you if they get it, mostly likely though they will be grateful to have the additional info. It also gives you a great chance to shine, you’ve put a lot of effort into honing your real estate skills, why not take moment to show off.

 Practice Self-Discipline. This means showing up on time, never double booking, being mentally present with appropriate paperwork, and having your homework done. This will show the client that you respect their valuable time, and appreciate their business. Show up to a viewing ten minutes early, with extra highlight sheets, and an overview of the neighbourhood and amenities. Your clients will see you care as much about their new home as they do.

Adapt to technology. Chances are if you aren’t particularly picky you will have a broad range of clients with a large range of abilities. You may have established clients who like phone calls, hang on to business cards, and receive faxed documents. Then of course your new clients may prefer dealing in texts and emails, having found out about you via your twitter or facebook page. Keeping current and constantly adapting opens you up to the broadest possible market of clientele. It takes less than 5 minutes to post an Instagram of your new listing which can then be cross shared with Facebook and Twitter. “Check-In” at your open house so clients know where to find you, then share success stories and photos of happy customers. It will showcase you as a genuine person with a real passion for client satisfaction.

News agencies across the country are reporting on new nationwide mortgage protocol to affect many real estate consumers. The federal government has implemented a larger minimum down payment for high valued homes in Canada.

Currently the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) requires a down payment of 5% in order to qualify for their insurance protection. This CMHC is support is not required in all circumstances, but crucial for lenders to see when a mortgage value is worth upwards of 80% of the home’s value. As reported by the CBC:

“Banks are forbidden to provide “high-ratio” mortgages — when the amount being borrowed is more than 80 per cent of the home’s purchase price — without taking out insurance for it.”

The new CMHC prerequisite, handed down from the federal government, will require a new minimum down payment of 10% on homes worth over $500,000. However the additional cost will only apply to the amount that exceeds that total.

This means that buyers will still pay only 5% on the first $500,000, and then any excess amount above that will require the 10% down payment. The CBC report explains:

“Once the new rules are implemented in 2016, someone looking to buy a $750,000 home would need to have a minimum down payment of $50,000, which is what you get when you add five per cent of $500,000 and 10 per cent of the remaining $250,000.”

Finance Minister Bill Morneau has explained that the from a financial standpoint the move is an effort to “create an environment that protects the people from buying homes so they have sufficient equity”. Bank of Montreal Capital Markets has unpacked the issue and seems to agree that the impact will be for the greater good, according to senior economist Robert Kavcic,

“Rather than a blunt instrument to cool the market, this is a targeted measure designed to deter a very small segment of buyers from stretching into the market with a very low equity position”.

What will the local impact be from these measures? The EREB has addressed this issue from a local standpoint and comes out optimistically. The average sale price in the Edmonton census metropolitan area falls well below the $500,000 price point, currently at $438, 172. REALTORS® Association of Edmonton affirmed this sentiment.

“We are pleased that the tiered approach should have little effect on first time home buyers looking to get into the market. However, we will continue to watch the Edmonton market to see what effects this national change has locally.”

In 2015 there were 2,721 residential properties that sold for over $500,000. The new measures are cited to take effect February 15, 2016.

Most people are too wrapped up this time of year preparing for Christmas to think about New Year’s Eve planning.  The hottest shows and clubs in town sell out fast and early so don’t be left scrambling for post-holiday plans. We’ve compiled a list of the best Edmonton has to offer on the biggest celebration night of the year, from the hottest parties to the best of family friendly events.

1. New Year’s Eve Downtown

An Edmonton Classic. Family activities are offered throughout Churchill Square and City Hall all evening. From face painting, crafts, magicians, and face painting, to ice skating, bannock making, and fireworks this is a kid-friendly, non-alcoholic event perfect for keeping the evening exciting but still low key. Indoor festivities begin at 7pm, outdoor entertainment begins at 9:15, and the firework show is at midnight.

*The city of Edmonton will be offer free public transportation on December 31, 2015 starting at 6pm until 2 a.m.

2. NYE with Kenny Shields and Streetheart

For those feeling a little bit rock ‘n roll this holiday season, Century Casino is hosting Canadian classic rockers Streeheart, featuring Kenny Sheilds. Doors at 8:30 and a show at 9:15 leaves plenty of time to keep the party going for the NYE countdown or to try your luck at the casino’s extensive table and VLT gaming room.

Tickets are $79.95 through the casino, dinner and show packages are available for an additional fee.

 3. Gatsby Gala at the Fairmont Hotel MacDonald. 

The upscale party goer will enjoy this formal affair at the classiest of all establishments, the Empire Ballroom of the Fairmont Hotel MacDonald. Dress in Gatsby inspired period wear, at this extravagant 5 course dinner and live big band dance gala. Program runs from 6pm to 1am, including cocktails, dinner service, entertainment, NYE midnight countdown, and bar service.

4. Back to the Countdown

Union Hall hosts a wild night of classic music videos, counting down to a midnight champagne toasts and double DJ’s to keep the party going. Dance the night away with DJ Grizz and DJ Tyco, while watching all your favourite video blasts from the past. Tickets start at $19.90 for general admission but there are multiple VIP options and prepaid bottle services packages for you and the whole crew.

5. Strathcona County Festival

Another great kid friendly event to celebrate the night with the whole family. From 4pm to 8pm you can enjoy free winter wonderland festivities and still be home for bedtime. Activities include crafts, a bonfire, face painting, public skating, and indoor snowboardinga at Broadmoor Lake Park, Community Centre, and Festival Place. Strathcona County transit plans to offer free park and ride services running during the event hours.

6. Latin New Years

For the 16th year running, the Delta Edmonton South is hosting a spicy night of dancing, drinks, and dining not to be missed. Voted Western Canada’s best Latin New Years, you can salsa along to  Giro Lopez and his band, supported by reggae artist Jmiel. Evening includes entertainment, a four course meal, and midnight countdown. Venue opens at 5:45, with dinner at 7:45. There are a variety of ticket pricing options to suit your party’s needs.

7. NYE Club Crawl

If you’re looking for a wild night out on the town, hop on the night’s most popular party bus to hit all the hottest clubs in town. This event was Club Zone’s 2015 fastest NYE sell out event. Crawl pass includes admission to 4 downtown night clubs, party bus access, no line-no cover privileges, official mardi gras bead necklaces. Check in is 6-7pm and then the party gets rolling. Passes start at $25.

8. Jazz New Year’s Eve

In addition to Latin New Year’s Eve, Delta Edmonton South is ALSO hosting Jazz NYE if that kind of thing is more your style. Get into the swing of 2016 with the Swing Kings featuring Sandro Dominelli & Shelley Jones. Dinner is included in your ticket package, as well as a view of the fireworks downtown. The evening begins at 5:30, attiring is formal.

9. St. Albert Fireworks

Victory Life Church of St. Albert is hosting an extravagent firework display by industry heavy hitters Thunder F/X Fireworks. The display begins at 8:30 sharp in Mission Park and family members of all ages are welcome to attend the free event.

Here is a video of a previous fireworks display

10. World Waterpark’s Family Beach Ball

Why freeze in outdoor downtown Edmonton when you can lounge on the balmy ‘beaches’ of West Edmonton Malls World Waterpark. Boasting an ambient 31 degree temperature, this may be your most relaxing NYE yet. Wave pool and slides will be open all evening, along with a spectacular indoor firework display. A family of four pass is $99 for the event and it runs from 6pm to midnight.

Influx of YEG Inventory has Created a Buyer’s Market in the City.

Fall statistics from the EREB, as well as winter projections, are looking stable for the time being with no major market fluctuations. Key market factors affecting Edmonton currently are average days on market and ongoing elevated inventory.

Average days on market continues to rise as inventory remains strong, indicating a healthy buyer’s market. October averaged 57 days overall, up from last year’s 51, and an 8% increase from September. Single family homes were slightly less at 56 days on market, where Condominium listings brought that number up with 61 average days on market. The increasing popularity of duplex/rowhouses continues to show through, dropping from 51 days on market the month previous to 49 for October.

As far as inventory, the largest factor affecting days on market, it “remains robust” according to EREB reports. October recorded 6,641 residential properties listed in the Edmonton CMA total; showing a 48.47% increase from numbers recorded last October, however still a 6.57% decrease from the month previous, in September 2015.

According to Geneva Tetreault, Chair of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton:

“The influx of inventory, both new and resale, has given buyers a bigger selection and more time to make their choice. There are buyers out there looking to take advantage of low interest rates and the great selection of inventory of all types of property. Sellers need to be competitive in a market with healthy inventory.”

Average residential sale prices for the month were up 1.72% in year-over-year comparisons, whereas total sales saw a 15% decrease. Condo sales saw the largest drop in sales at 17% with an average price reduction of nearly 6%, whereas single family home sales dropped 14% despite a 3% price increase. As noted by Tetrault, ““It is common to see a dip in both sales and prices at this time of year, but condos have definitely been the most affected.” She then goes on to explain:

“The average recorded selling price of single family homes in October was bolstered by the sale of two properties well over the $3.5 million mark. Even without these sales we are continuing to see strong prices in this category. We will likely continue to see average days on market grow as the inventory remains higher than last year and single family sales are down almost 15%.”

Single family homes, the only residential category that didn’t see an October price slip, averaged $438,935, a month over month increase of just over 1.5%. Duplex and rowhouses dropped 1.4% to $359,130, and condominiums decreased by 3.45% to $244, 225. The total residential average for all categories was $371, 756, a negligible 0.78% rise from September.

CLICK HERE to connect with a realtor and take advantage of the buyer’s market!

“Lower oil prices have created economic uncertainty in Alberta and Saskatchewan. This will hold back growth in housing starts in both of these provinces in 2015 and 2016 before improving economic conditions provide some gains in 2017.”  Lai Sing Louie, CMHC’s Regional Economist stated on Thursday.

“The economic and housing market outlook for the Prairie region continues to be adversely impacted by low commodity prices.”

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has released their Prairie Highlights from the 4th quarter edition of 2015’s Housing Market Outlook. The document highlights a significant trend in housing starts for 2016, showing a decline in all three of the prairie provinces.

Housing starts are expected to see a decline across the prairies.

[CLICK HERE to read up on Housing Starts and their economic significance as outlined by CNBC.]

While 2015 housing starts are estimated at 48,600 they are expected to dip as low as 32,900 potentially in 2016. Starting in 2017, however, these numbers are projected to increase up to 51,200. Alberta will see the largest decline throughout 2016, while Manitoba and Saskatchewan are predicted to stabilized earlier.

In Alberta specifically, the 2015 number will be closer to 37,200; that’s an 8% decline from 2014. The province will see a 2016 drop to as low as 23,700 or as high as an optimistic 35,900. Economic factors make predictions into 2017 difficult with a large variable range from 23,400 to 37,200.

According the the CMHC Prairie Highlights,

“Economic uncertainty has lowered resale transactions in oil-producing areas. In Alberta, resale transactions are projected to decline approximately twenty per cent in 2015. With oil prices assumed to gradually rise over the next two years, resales are forecasted to gradually improve to range between 53,700 and 63,500 in 2016 and between 54,400 and 65,600 in 2017.”

The larger overall impact of this unique real estate environment means conditions will favour the buyer in Alberta in particular and also Saskatchewan. A major contributing factor includes predictions of lower residential prices. Average sale prices for 2016 are expected to fall between $373,000 and $409,600. A rebounding 2017 is predicting this range to grow from between $379,00 to $419,800.

The following chart published by the CMHC offers a statistical breakdown of prairie province predictions: